Antimony metal has come off its peak. The Fastmarkets MB Antimony MMTA standard grade II in-warehouse Rotterdam benchmark touched $58,000–$59,650/MT in May (as of 2026-05-09, source: Fastmarkets MB); by early July, price trackers put 99.65% metal near $51,800/MT (as of 2026-07-03, source: Strategic Metals Invest price tracker — verify against the live Fastmarkets MB Rotterdam assessment at quote time). That is still roughly 4× the 2024 full-year average of about $12,000, but the direction has turned — and the turn has a specific, dated cause: China's suspension of its US export ban, in force since 2025-11-09 and expiring 2026-11-27. The question for procurement and trading teams in H2 is no longer cyclical-versus-structural in the abstract. It is what happens to a still-elevated price when the suspension window closes on November 27 — and whether your supply plan survives either answer.
The Demand Picture Is Not Driving This
Antimony end-use demand, per Roskill and Project Blue annual analyses, splits approximately 50–60% flame retardants (Sb₂O₃ as a synergist in halogenated FR systems for plastics, textiles, cable insulation, electronics housings), ~15% lead-acid battery grid alloys, ~15–20% defence (ammunition primers, tracer rounds, hardened lead-antimony shot, InSb/GaSb infrared semiconductor compounds), with the balance in glass clarifiers and plastics catalysts. Aggregate consumption is growing 3–4% annually — meaningful but not extraordinary. Flame-retardant demand tracks construction-code tightening (the EU's updated Construction Products Regulation, US revised UL 94 specifications). Defence has grown faster — DLA Strategic Materials disclosures and NATO ammunition procurement commitments indicate a multi-year step-up rather than a one-year spike — but the absolute volumes remain under 20,000 t/yr globally. The quieter growth lane is photovoltaics: sodium antimonate as a fining and clarifying agent in solar glass tracks PV panel build-out, and it is a pillar of the more bearish "ample supply, stable demand" readings of this market — a demand stream that grows steadily without producing squeeze dynamics.
The Supply Picture Has Broken
Global antimony mine production is roughly 80,000–110,000 t/yr (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026). China produces ~55% of mine supply and controls 60–80% of refined trioxide capacity, with the next-largest producers being Tajikistan (~12,000 t/yr from Anzob and Konchoch), Russia (output partially obscured by sanctions disclosure rules), Myanmar (3,000–5,000 t/yr), and Turkey/Bolivia/Australia (5,000–7,000 t/yr combined).
The structural change is China's MOFCOM Announcement No. 33 of 2024, effective 2024-09-15, which imposed per-shipment licensing on antimony, antimony ore, and antimony oxides, with end-user certificates and dual-use review required for every export — followed in December 2024 by an outright prohibition on exports to the United States. Through 2025 licensing throughput was uneven, and Western trade publications estimated the regime compressed seaborne availability by 25–30% against pre-2024 baselines.
Then the regime eased — on a timer. On 2025-11-09, following the Trump–Xi meeting, MOFCOM suspended the export prohibition on antimony (alongside gallium, germanium, and superhard materials) to the US, effective through 2026-11-27 (sources: MOFCOM; Fastmarkets). Two caveats keep this from being a full reopening: US-bound shipments still require per-shipment licences under the Announcement No. 33 architecture, and the prohibition on exports to military end-users remains in force. Alongside the policy easing, a supply-side loosening has been underway that the peak-price narrative missed: Southeast Asian metal and ingot capacity has grown sharply since summer 2025, adding non-Chinese refining throughput that did not exist when the squeeze formed. Together, these are why Rotterdam has come off the May peak rather than continued climbing.
Why the Price Reference You Use Matters
Antimony is not listed on the LME, COMEX, or any major futures exchange. Western traders price off Fastmarkets MB Rotterdam (antimony 99.65% in-warehouse) and Argus Metals International assessments. Chinese-domestic transactions reference Asian Metal and SHMET indices. In Q1 2026 the Rotterdam-to-China-domestic spread widened to historically anomalous levels — Chinese-domestic prices lagged Rotterdam by 15–20% as restricted licensing limited the ability to clear surplus internationally. A procurement memo quoting "the antimony price at $25,000" without specifying the benchmark misleads by at least 15% in either direction.
What the Alternative Supply Pipeline Means for H2 2026 Pricing
The non-Chinese project pipeline does not materially change near-term availability. Perpetua Resources' Stibnite Gold (Idaho) targets first production in 2028 at the earliest; smaller projects in Canada, Australia, and the Middle East run 2028–2030 timelines; recycling adds ~15% of supply but cannot scale fast enough to offset the China-export gap. For the project-by-project capex status, FEIS dates, and capacity targets driving the post-2028 picture, see the dedicated non-Chinese antimony supply pipeline analysis. The forecast implication is that 2026 trioxide buyers depend on existing operations and inventory — no project relief inside the forecast window.
Base-Case Price Range for H2 2026: Consolidation, Then the Cliff
Our earlier base case assumed the licensing regime stayed unchanged. It did not — the 2025-11-09 US suspension is exactly the "modest relaxation" our downside scenario contemplated, and the market has traded accordingly: metal eased from the $58,000–$59,650/MT May peak (as of 2026-05-09, source: Fastmarkets MB) to roughly $51,800/MT (as of 2026-07-03, source: Strategic Metals Invest tracker). The revised view splits on the November 27 expiry:
- Base case — consolidation while the window holds: metal drifts in the $45,000–$55,000/MT Rotterdam band through Q3 (range as of 2026-07-03; Bare Syndicate internal forecast — verify the live Fastmarkets MB Rotterdam assessment at quote time) as suspended-but-licensed US flows and new Southeast Asian ingot capacity keep supply adequate against stable demand.
- Cliff scenario — the suspension lapses or re-tightens on 2026-11-27: the December-2024 prohibition dynamics return, and Q4 restocking ahead of the deadline alone could push spot back toward the May peak. Watch for pre-deadline buying from US consumers from September onward — it is the tell.
- Extension scenario — the truce holds and the suspension is extended: the structural floor softens further, with the high-$30,000s plausible as Southeast Asian capacity matures. Even here, the floor sits far above the 2024 average near $12,000 — the licensing architecture itself, which remains in force, is the durable structural change.
Where Antimony-Forecast Reads Misfire
- Quoting "the LME antimony price." There is no LME antimony contract. The benchmark is Fastmarkets MB Rotterdam for Western trade and Asian Metal / SHMET for China-domestic.
- Interchanging antimony ore, antimony metal/ingot, and antimony trioxide. They are different products (HS 261710 vs 811010 vs 282580) with different specifications and prices that can diverge 30–50%.
- Asserting demand-share percentages without a year. "60% flame retardants" was true in 2018; in 2026 it is closer to 50% as defence has grown. Cite the specific Roskill, Project Blue, or USGS report year.
- Extrapolating the Q1 2026 Rotterdam-vs-China-domestic spread linearly. The spread will close when MOFCOM either tightens or relaxes. A hedge betting on one direction only carries real downside.
- Assuming Tajik or Russian supply scales to fill the gap. Their combined output is capped by deposit geology and refining capacity; both have run near production limit for three years.
- Treating the export-control regime as static. The US-bound prohibition was imposed in December 2024, suspended on 2025-11-09, and expires from suspension on 2026-11-27 — three regime states in under two years. Any forward contract spanning November 2026 should price both sides of that date, not one.
- Substituting aluminium hydroxide or magnesium hydroxide into FR formulations without 6–12 months requalification. Substitution requires 2–4× loading and changes to polymer rheology; large compounders cannot pivot in weeks.
Procurement Posture for Q3–Q4 2026
Three concrete moves for buyers planning the second half. First, anchor any forward contract to a named index (Fastmarkets MB Rotterdam or Asian Metal China spot) with a specific pricing window — cargo loading date, monthly average, or three-day average. "Market price at delivery" clauses transfer market-direction risk to the buyer at the worst moment. Second, require explicit licence-status disclosure in seller representations; a seller routing Chinese-origin material under MOFCOM Announcement No. 33 should provide the licence number, end-user certificate status, and the past-90-day shipment-window track record. Third, build strategic safety stock of 30–60 days from non-Chinese suppliers; cost-of-carry is significant but cheaper than a production stoppage when a forward cargo slips its window.
Next step: Browse our antimony ore and antimony concentrates for grade specifications and Pakistan/Afghanistan origin documentation, or request a delivered-cost indication for Q3 non-Chinese supply. The full Minerals & Mining division lists the broader strategic-minerals portfolio.
Additional Market Context
The named authorities referenced above — USGS, ICSG, ILZSG, ICDA, LME, Fastmarkets, Argus, Platts, and IEA Critical Minerals Outlook — publish monthly bulletins and annual reports that procurement teams use to track market direction. The USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries series (annual, January release) is the foundational reference for production and reserve data across most industrial minerals; ICSG and ILZSG cover copper / lead / zinc respectively with monthly bulletins; ICDA tracks chromite; Fastmarkets, Argus, and Platts publish indexed pricing across mineral categories. Subscribing to and reading these sources is the basic operational discipline that distinguishes informed procurement from generic supplier engagement.
For traders managing multi-mineral books, the cross-correlation between commodities matters. LME copper movements drive concentrate TC/RC dynamics that affect zinc and lead concentrate markets indirectly. Steel demand drives chromite and iron-ore consumption together. Battery-mineral demand pulls fluorspar acidspar alongside lithium and nickel. The named-authority sources track these correlations in their published commentary, providing the multi-market view that single-commodity sources miss.
Last reviewed: 2026-07-09. Metal price as of 2026-07-03 (tracker-sourced) with the May peak dated 2026-05-09 (Fastmarkets MB); the Rotterdam assessment publishes twice weekly — verify the live level at quote time. Export-control status per MOFCOM announcements of 2024-09-15, December 2024, and 2025-11-09; forecast ranges are Bare Syndicate analyst views, not contracted prices.
