The question of whether antimony prices normalise from the elevated 2026 levels — the Fastmarkets MB Antimony MMTA standard grade II in-warehouse Rotterdam benchmark was $58,000–$59,650/MT (as of 2026-05-09, source: Fastmarkets MB), up from the ~$25,000/MT trioxide level of Q1 2026 (as of 2026-04-14, source: Fastmarkets MB) — depends almost entirely on one variable: how fast non-Chinese supply scales. China produces ~55% of mined antimony and 60–80% of refined trioxide (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026). For the next three years the answer is "barely at all" — every non-Chinese project under development targets 2028 or later, and the existing non-Chinese producers (Tajikistan, Russia, Myanmar, Turkey, Bolivia) are at or near nameplate capacity. This is the project-by-project status report.
The Baseline: Existing Non-Chinese Producers
Outside China, the producers contributing meaningfully to seaborne supply: Tajikistan (Anzob, Konchoch operations, ~12,000 t/yr combined), Russia (output partially obscured by sanctions disclosure rules but historically ~5,000 t/yr), Myanmar (~3,000–5,000 t/yr from a mix of formal and informal operators), Turkey (~3,000 t/yr), Bolivia (smaller, with ASM contribution), and Australia (residual production from Mandalay Resources' Costerfield operation). Combined non-Chinese output is in the 25,000–35,000 t/yr range against global ~80,000–110,000 t/yr.
None of these producers has meaningful expansion potential in the near term. Tajik output is constrained by deposit grade decline and infrastructure; Myanmar output depends on operating environment with substantial variability; Turkish capacity is largely allocated to long-term contracts.
Perpetua Resources — Stibnite Gold (Idaho, USA)
The flagship Western antimony project. Perpetua Resources (NASDAQ: PPTA) holds the Stibnite Gold deposit in Idaho, with a 2024 Final Environmental Impact Statement and Record of Decision from the US Forest Service. The project carries Department of Defense funding under the Defense Production Act Title III programme. Stibnite Gold targets first production in 2028 at the earliest, with antimony production at the back-end of the project's gold-focused life-of-mine. Project disclosures indicate antimony output in the 5,000–10,000 t/yr range at steady state — meaningful but not market-resetting on its own.
Canada — New Brunswick and Beyond
Canada hosts several antimony exploration and development projects. Military Metals (TSXV-listed at various points) has held assets in New Brunswick at the Lake George antimony deposit; other juniors have explored Yukon and Nova Scotia. None has reached construction-decision stage as of mid-2026. The Canadian critical minerals strategy and US-Canada bilateral mineral arrangements provide policy support, but project timelines remain 5–7 years from exploration to production.
Australia — NSW and Specialty Operations
Mandalay Resources' Costerfield (Victoria) continues to produce antimony as a gold-antimony co-product at modest scale. Larvotto Resources holds the Hillgrove project in New South Wales — historically Australia's largest antimony producer, currently in pre-development. Larvotto's targeted ramp-up timeline is 2027–2028.
Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the Middle East
Oman has hosted antimony exploration through Tethyan Resource Corp and others. The Middle Eastern projects benefit from low political risk and proximity to the Suez canal and Asian customers, but none is at construction-decision stage. Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 mining push has not specifically prioritised antimony.
What This Means for the Supply Map Through 2030
Aggregate non-Chinese capacity additions through 2030, summed across all projects under development, total roughly 15,000–25,000 t/yr above the 2025 baseline. Against global demand at ~85,000–95,000 t/yr (growing 3–4% annually per Roskill / Project Blue estimates), the gap closure is partial. Chinese supply discipline under MOFCOM Announcement No. 33 of 2024 (effective 2024-09-15) remains the dominant supply variable through the period. Markets that assume non-Chinese capacity solves the shortage by 2028 are over-extrapolating.
Where the Antimony-Supply Read Goes Wrong
- Stating Perpetua Stibnite Gold "will fix" the supply shortage. Its expected output is meaningful but not market-resetting. Mid-decade supply tightness depends on aggregate non-Chinese ramp-up, not any single project.
- Assuming Australian Hillgrove tonnages without naming Larvotto Resources and citing their feasibility study. Project disclosures change as engineering progresses.
- Equating "Department of Defense funding" with "production timeline acceleration." DPA Title III funding helps de-risk capex but does not shorten permitting, construction, or commissioning cycles.
- Stating Russian antimony output without qualifying the sanctions-disclosure context. Published Russian production figures pre-date the current restrictions and may not reflect current export-eligible volume.
- Extrapolating ASM (artisanal and small-scale) production in Bolivia and Myanmar. ASM volumes are estimates with wide confidence bands; relying on them for procurement planning is risk-loaded.
- Assuming recycled antimony scales with primary demand. Recycling ~15% of supply tracks lead-acid battery returns; battery recycling growth is slow and constrained by collection infrastructure.
What Procurement Teams Should Watch
Three signals to track quarterly: Perpetua Resources disclosures on Stibnite Gold construction progress and antimony product specification; MOFCOM export-licence throughput rate (visible indirectly via Chinese antimony export volume in customs data); and Larvotto Resources' Hillgrove feasibility milestones. Material changes to any of these reset the supply-pipeline view.
Evaluating cargoes from any of these projects starts with the buyer-side diligence checklist for non-Chinese antimony, and which projects can actually scale is constrained by the ore geology and mining math covered separately.
Next step: See current offerings on our antimony ore and antimony concentrates product pages, or discuss forward contracting with the Minerals & Mining division for non-Chinese supply structures aligned to the 2028+ pipeline view.
Additional Market Context
The USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (antimony chapter) is the foundational reference for production and consumption data. Fastmarkets MB publishes the Western antimony benchmark (Rotterdam in-warehouse) and Asian Metal covers the China-domestic price; Argus Metals International provides parallel coverage. China's MOFCOM Announcement No. 33 of 2024 export-licence regime is documented on the MOFCOM website. The US DLA Strategic Materials portal discloses National Defense Stockpile holdings and acquisition authorisations. EU CRMA Regulation 2024/1252 codifies antimony's strategic-mineral status.
For procurement teams tracking antimony specifically, the Perpetua Resources (NASDAQ: PPTA) Stibnite Gold project disclosures, Larvotto Resources' Hillgrove project updates, and Mandalay Resources Costerfield production reports form the non-Chinese supply pipeline monitoring set. Each operator publishes quarterly updates that inform forward-supply expectations.
Last reviewed: 2026-05-16. Project timelines and capex disclosures are operator-side estimates; verify against current SEC / ASX / TSXV filings before financial commitments.
