Antimony procurement in H2 2026 is a diligence problem before it is a price problem. Metal is off its peak: the Fastmarkets MB Antimony MMTA standard grade II in-warehouse Rotterdam benchmark touched $58,000–$59,650/MT (as of 2026-05-09, source: Fastmarkets MB), and price trackers now put 99.65% metal near $51,800/MT (as of 2026-07-03, source: Strategic Metals Invest), still about four times the 2024 average of roughly $12,000. Trioxide (Sb₂O₃, CAS 1309-64-4) follows the metal reference — confirm Fastmarkets MB Sb₂O₃ Rotterdam/Antwerp when quoting. The paperwork has not eased with the price: China — roughly 55% of mined supply and 60–80% of refined trioxide capacity (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026) — clears every export through MOFCOM licensing, and through Q1 2026 licensed cargoes ran 60–90 days behind nominated windows. The checklist below is what we verify before any LOI; the market view sits in our antimony price outlook.
What Actually Changed: MOFCOM No. 33, Then the Timed US Suspension
China's Ministry of Commerce imposed export controls on antimony, antimony ore, antimony oxides, and related products via MOFCOM Announcement No. 33 of 2024, effective 2024-09-15: per-shipment end-user certificates, dual-use review, case-by-case approval. Licensing throughput stayed uneven through 2025, and by Q1 2026 processing times had settled into a 60–90-day window, with rejections cited for end-uses carrying any potential defence linkage. Trade publications estimated seaborne availability compressed 25–30% against pre-2024 baselines — treat such figures as trade-press estimates; MOFCOM publishes no licensing statistics.
The 2025-11-09 suspension changed the routing map, not the architecture. MOFCOM suspended the export prohibition on antimony to the US on 2025-11-09, effective through 2026-11-27 (sources: MOFCOM; Fastmarkets). Two facts survive the headline: US-bound cargoes still need per-shipment licences under the No. 33 framework, and the prohibition on exports to military end-users remains in force. Licence diligence therefore applies inside the window exactly as before — and any contract crossing 2026-11-27 should price both the extension and the snap-back.
Why the LME Cannot Bail the Market Out
Unlike copper, zinc, or lead, antimony has no London Metal Exchange contract — no warehoused stocks, no daily cash settlement, no liquid futures curve. Western buyers price off Fastmarkets MB Rotterdam (antimony 99.65% min, in-warehouse) and Argus Metals International assessments; Chinese-domestic transactions reference Asian Metal and SHMET indices. The arbitrage between these references widened to historically anomalous levels in Q1 2026, with Chinese-domestic prices lagging Rotterdam by 15–20% — weak domestic demand against a restricted export channel. With Rotterdam off its May peak inside the suspension window, the gap has been closing — pull both references the same day rather than assume last quarter's spread.
Demand: Defence Buys Are Multi-Year, Not Spot
Antimony's end-use split, per Roskill and Project Blue annual analyses, is roughly 50–60% flame retardants (antimony trioxide as a synergist in halogenated FR systems), ~15% lead-acid battery grid alloys, and a growing 15–20% defence segment covering ammunition primers, tracer rounds, hardened lead-antimony shot, and infrared semiconductor compounds (InSb, GaSb). The defence component is the demand driver that distinguishes the current cycle from previous antimony rallies: NATO ammunition procurement commitments are multi-year budget authorisations, not spot purchases. The US DLA National Defense Stockpile lists antimony as a strategic material (DLA Strategic Materials disclosures), and the EU Critical Raw Materials Act (Regulation 2024/1252) with UK/Australian equivalents keeps antimony on every Western critical-minerals list. The quieter lane is photovoltaics — sodium antimonate as a solar-glass fining agent — steady, PV-linked growth featuring centrally in the more bearish readings of this market.
Non-Chinese Supply: What's Actually Available Before 2028
Tajikistan (Anzob, Konchoch) produces ~12,000 t/yr of antimony concentrates; Russia's output is partially obscured by sanctions disclosure rules; Myanmar produces 3,000–5,000 t/yr across formal and informal operators; Bolivia and Turkey together add another 5,000–7,000 t/yr. The material change since the squeeze formed: Southeast Asian metal and ingot capacity has grown sharply since summer 2025, adding refining throughput outside China. The flagship development project remains Perpetua Resources' Stibnite Gold in Idaho — final environmental impact statement secured in 2024, initial production 2028 at the earliest. For H2 2026 deliveries, development projects change nothing near-term — supply comes from existing operations or recycled antimony (~15% of supply, primarily from used lead-acid batteries).
What Buyers Need to Verify Before Signing an H2 Contract
- Product specification — Sb₂O₃ ≥ 99.5%, As ≤ 0.10%, Pb ≤ 0.10%, water-soluble matter ≤ 0.20%. Trioxide, metal ingot (99.65%), and ore concentrate are different products with different HS codes; confirm the form on the LOI — grade-tier detail is in our antimony spec guide.
- Origin documentation — Certificate of Origin from the local Chamber of Commerce, mining licence reference, and assay from an internationally recognised laboratory (SGS, Alfred H Knight, or Bureau Veritas).
- Export-licence exposure — If the seller routes Chinese-origin material under MOFCOM Announcement No. 33, confirm the licence number, end-user certificate status, and the seller's track record on shipment windows in the past 90 days.
- Pricing reference — Anchor the contract to a named index (Fastmarkets MB Rotterdam or Asian Metal China spot) with a specific pricing window (cargo loading date, monthly average, etc.), not to a "market price at delivery" clause.
- Force majeure language — Carve out export-licence delays as vendor force majeure only where the seller proves a timely application; otherwise delay risk stays with the seller.
Where the Antimony-Crisis Read Misfires
- Quoting "the LME antimony price" in any internal memo — there isn't one. The benchmark is Fastmarkets MB Rotterdam for Western trade and Asian Metal / SHMET for China-domestic.
- Interchanging antimony ore, antimony metal, and antimony trioxide — they have different specifications, customs codes, and prices. A trader quoting "antimony at $25,000" without naming the form is selling something the buyer has not specified.
- Accepting demand-share percentages without a year — "60% flame retardants" was true in 2018, may be ~50% in 2026; cite the specific Roskill, Project Blue, or USGS report and year.
- Assuming substitution will solve the problem fast — aluminium hydroxide (ATH) and magnesium hydroxide (MDH) can replace Sb₂O₃ in some flame-retardant systems, but they need 2–4× loading and polymer reformulation; large compounders take 6–12 months to requalify.
- Extrapolating the Rotterdam–Asian Metal gap — it has narrowed as the market priced the 2025-11-09 US suspension, and it re-opens or closes for good at the 2026-11-27 expiry. Plans betting on one direction of that date carry real downside.
How Bare Syndicate's Non-Chinese Sourcing Operates
Bare Syndicate maintains direct supplier relationships in Pakistan, Tajikistan, and selected African operations, with assay-verified material and a documentation pack covering origin, mining-licence reference, and SGS-class certificates. Cargoes ship FOB Karachi or Port Qasim under Incoterms 2020, with optional CIF terms to most Asian and European discharge ports. Where Chinese-routed product is required, we confirm the MOFCOM licence reference and end-user-certificate status before quoting.
Next step: Review our antimony ore and antimony concentrates product pages for specifications and origin documentation, or request a delivered-cost indication for Q3–Q4 2026 supply. See the full Minerals & Mining division for the broader strategic-minerals portfolio.
Last reviewed: 2026-07-24. Metal levels as marked — May peak dated 2026-05-09 (Fastmarkets MB), 2026-07-03 tracker print — and the Rotterdam assessment publishes twice weekly, so verify the live level at quote time. Export-control status per MOFCOM announcements of 2024-09-15 and 2025-11-09.
